Adsense margings down for Google?

Perhaps Google is seeing the effect of pricing policies. These are driving some webmasters to seeks more profitable uses of screen real estate.

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It seems the trend has been set now. Google adwords users are busy benefitting from extensive cost-saving features, now available. Combine this with smart-pricing and it forces publishers to defect. Why? Rates for alternative ads become more attractive.

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Google has the opportunity to turn this around. However, I doubt they are in a position to increase payouts, unless they charge significantly more for Adwords-related clicks. It is difficult because so many folk are expert manipulators of the Adwords system now. Besides, Google seems intent on getting rid of those who manipulate Adsense to the degree where big-click money continuously flows through the system (opinion not fact).

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While affiliate ads benefit greatly from adwords at the moment, Adsense ads are close to being debunked by many. This is especially true for those who depend on revenue from ads. It is a vicious circle really. It is possible Google loses big time as they earn a cut from the overall revenue generated from adsense clicks.

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It is conceivable, but in a way, if Google discourages made-for-adsense (MFA) sites, it loses revenue. At the same time, it depreciates the net worth of a whole raft of advertisers who perceive the lower number of clicks, thus a lower conversion opportunity. Hence, they want to pay even less for ads. If this continues, adsense clicks will have less value than paid text links. Even worse, the value is less than banner/affiliate ads. Many publishers are already seeing this trend.

One thing Google seems to like is prejudging buyers before they get a chance to shop. By showing lesser-value ads, or discouraging sites from displaying ads, the recipient sites gain less traffic. Consequently, there are fewer potential buyers.

Google has incredibly clever folk. However, when it comes to judging human-nature, they are trying to be too clever. It changes the landscape of both buyer and seller intuitiveness. e.g. 'Is a guy looking for tennis balls interested in buying a racket? Perhaps they are potential buyers for chalk, wrist-bands, headbands, sneakers, tickets for a local match, club membership, tuition, trophies, prize-engraving, sports-news etc.' Google doesn't yet cover all the associations if the words aren't directly associated with the keyword -tennis-.

By targeting themselves to (example keyword) tennis balls so accurately, Google effectively forces many advertisers to miss opportunities. This loses the impulse-buyers, who are actively researching other interesting, related articles, and sites. They are not apparently focused on 'tennis balls' or other closely related keywords.